{"generated_utc":"2026-09-23 07:41","tested_since":"2026-07-23","method":"signal = 3-day rise >= 1 sd of the index own 3-day moves; hit = paired market rising >= 1 sd of its own N-day moves inside the window; base_rate = the same market move measured over every window regardless of signal; edge = hit rate minus base rate","license":"CC BY 4.0","indexes":[{"key":"world_tension","name":"World Tension","slug":"world-tension","signals":4,"hits":1,"rate":25,"lead":8,"market":"vix","ahead":21,"thr_index":3.8,"thr_market":10.3,"base_rate":53,"edge":-28,"misses":[["2026-08-10",3.2],["2026-08-17",5.3],["2026-09-09",7.9]],"note":""},{"key":"energy_security","name":"Energy Security","slug":"energy-security","signals":5,"hits":3,"rate":60,"lead":14,"market":"oil","ahead":21,"thr_index":4.9,"thr_market":7.5,"base_rate":61,"edge":-1,"misses":[["2026-09-10",-0.6],["2026-09-20",-0.2]],"note":""},{"key":"food_security","name":"Food Security","slug":"food-security","signals":4,"hits":2,"rate":50,"lead":10,"market":"wheat","ahead":30,"thr_index":4.7,"thr_market":6.9,"base_rate":53,"edge":-3,"misses":[["2026-09-08",-0.8],["2026-09-20",1.6]],"note":""},{"key":"shipping_stress","name":"Shipping Stress","slug":"shipping-stress","signals":1,"hits":0,"rate":0,"lead":null,"market":"bdi","ahead":30,"thr_index":10.3,"thr_market":1.0,"base_rate":0,"edge":0,"misses":[["2026-09-03",0.0]],"note":""},{"key":"currency_stress","name":"Currency Stress","slug":"currency-stress","signals":2,"hits":1,"rate":50,"lead":10,"market":"dxy","ahead":21,"thr_index":1.9,"thr_market":0.9,"base_rate":35,"edge":15,"misses":[["2026-09-16",0.4]],"note":""},{"key":"gold_silver","name":"Gold & Silver Fear","slug":"gold-silver","signals":5,"hits":1,"rate":20,"lead":20,"market":"gold","ahead":21,"thr_index":3.8,"thr_market":6.8,"base_rate":35,"edge":-15,"misses":[["2026-08-24",-0.3],["2026-09-09",-0.3],["2026-09-16",2.7]],"note":""},{"key":"inflation_pressure","name":"Inflation Pressure","slug":"inflation-pressure","signals":4,"hits":3,"rate":75,"lead":22,"market":"oil","ahead":30,"thr_index":3.5,"thr_market":9.7,"base_rate":63,"edge":12,"misses":[["2026-09-20",-0.2]],"note":""},{"key":"supply_chain_risk","name":"Supply Chain Risk","slug":"supply-chain-risk","signals":1,"hits":0,"rate":0,"lead":null,"market":"bdi","ahead":30,"thr_index":5.3,"thr_market":1.0,"base_rate":0,"edge":0,"misses":[["2026-09-02",0.0]],"note":""},{"key":"market_fear","name":"Market Fear","slug":"market-fear","signals":3,"hits":0,"rate":0,"lead":null,"market":"vix","ahead":14,"thr_index":2.5,"thr_market":10.5,"base_rate":39,"edge":-39,"misses":[["2026-08-24",-0.6],["2026-09-09",7.9],["2026-09-15",2.9]],"note":""},{"key":"sanctions","name":"Sanctions Pressure","slug":"sanctions","signals":3,"hits":1,"rate":33,"lead":27,"market":"dxy","ahead":30,"thr_index":6.2,"thr_market":1.3,"base_rate":37,"edge":-4,"misses":[["2026-08-09",0.3],["2026-09-02",1.2]],"note":""}],"signal_mix_today":{"market":48,"corpus":47,"attention":5},"confidence_today":{"value":71,"label":"Good","headlines":50,"sources":3,"estimated":1,"hours_old":0.0}}