Global lockdowns collapsed supply chains overnight. Oil demand evaporated — Brent futures briefly went negative ($-37/barrel). Central banks cut to zero. The model's energy and trade signals would have spiked simultaneously, with media sentiment at extreme levels.
The largest land war in Europe since WWII. Russia is the world's largest gas exporter and 2nd largest oil producer. Sanctions and energy supply collapse drove inflation to generational highs across Europe and the US. All five WTM signals would have been simultaneously elevated — the defining test case for the model.
Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping forced vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope — adding 10–14 days and significant fuel costs to Asia-Europe routes. Supply chain stress was real but geographically contained. The WTM energy and trade signals elevated but conflict and finance remained moderate — correctly reflected in the mid-range score.
Sweeping US tariffs on goods from China, EU, Canada, and Mexico. The trade signal would have spiked sharply; finance signal elevated as markets fell; media sentiment high. Energy and conflict signals remained moderate — correctly capturing this as an economic rather than military crisis.
Direct military conflict involving a nuclear-capable state near the world's most critical oil chokepoint (Strait of Hormuz). All five signals simultaneously at extreme levels — the first time this has occurred since model launch. IEA warns this is the worst energy shock since 1973. Outcome still unfolding.
Methodology note: Backtested scores are estimates, not exact historical values. The model was applied retroactively using the same formulas, weightings, and signal definitions currently in production. Results should be read as directional validation, not precise calibration.
The false-positive rate (score above 70 without measurable economic impact) has not yet been observed in this dataset but cannot be ruled out in lower-stress environments. The model is weakest at detecting slow-burn deterioration (structural factors that build over years without acute events).