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The WTM score excels at detecting acute stress. These five slow-moving indicators provide structural context — the background conditions the daily score does not capture.
These indicators complement the WTM score but are not incorporated into it. A high WTM score + elevated structural indicators = heightened confidence in the signal. A high WTM score with calm structural indicators = possible media amplification. See backtesting and methodology for details.
The World Tension Score is a composite geopolitical risk index that aggregates five independent signals — armed conflict intensity, energy market stress, trade disruption, financial volatility, and media sentiment — into a single number updated twice daily.
A rising score typically precedes increases in gold and oil prices, a widening of credit spreads, and elevated volatility in equity markets. Historically, scores above 70 have coincided with periods of heightened safe-haven demand — higher gold prices, lower equity valuations, and capital flight to USD and Treasury bonds.
Unlike single-variable risk indicators such as the VIX (which measures equity volatility only) or oil price alone, the WTM score incorporates geopolitical conflict data, media fear analysis, and cross-asset financial signals simultaneously. This makes it a more comprehensive early-warning indicator for inflationary pressure.
The current score of 82 places global conditions in the Extreme Fear range — meaning multiple simultaneous stress signals are elevated. Key drivers today include energy market pressure, active conflict monitoring, and financial stress indicators.