World Tension Index

The World Tension Score is a composite geopolitical risk index aggregating five independently measured signals — armed conflict, energy stress, trade disruption, financial pressure and media coverage — into a single 0–100 number.

A rising score has historically preceded increases in gold and oil prices, widening credit spreads and elevated market volatility, because the same geopolitical shocks drive both the score and those markets.

Unlike single-variable indicators such as the VIX (equity volatility only) or the oil price alone, the score is difficult to move with one noisy input: its five factors come from separate data worlds, so sustained elevation means multiple independent stress channels are elevated simultaneously.

One number for a noisy world. The World Tension Index squeezes five separate stress signals into a single 0–100 score. Armed conflict, energy, trade, finance and media pressure each carry a fixed weight, and our own engine rebuilds the mix every ten minutes.

Why it matters to you. Tension does not stay on the news. It turns into fuel prices, food bills, shipping delays and nervous markets. When this number climbs and stays up, those costs usually follow within weeks.

What makes ours different. We do not buy a feed and relabel it. The engine reads 41 public news sources itself, measures what share of world coverage is about conflict and disruption, and compares that with its own history. The score is that comparison, not an opinion.

• Conflict (25%) — fighting, strikes and escalation across the active conflict roster.
• Energy (20%) — oil and gas prices, volatility and supply threats.
• Trade (20%) — sanctions, tariffs, blockades and freight stress.
• Finance (20%) — bond yields, the dollar and safe-haven buying.
• Media (15%) — how much of the world’s news is about tension right now.
• Shock overlay — a sudden event can add up to 18 points instantly; it fades over days if nothing follows. The score jumps fast but only falls about 3 points a day. Fear works the same way.

Today: 58 — Moderate. Stress is elevated across several signals. Worth watching supply chains and energy costs.

Direction: it fell 5 points over the last 7 days and rose 3 points over 30 days. Our record since 23 March averages 80.4, so today sits below its own normal.

The strongest push right now comes from the trade factor at 53 out of 100.

The scale. Under 40 is calm. 40–54 is stable. 55–67 is moderate. 68–77 is high tension. Above 77 is extreme.

September 2026 so far. Average 58.4 over 23 days. Peak 63 on 16 September, low 52 on 1 September. Read the September story →

Last month averaged 57.8, so this month is running higher by 0.6. Every month on record →

What is a normal World Tension score?

Our daily record began on 23 March 2026 and the long-run average is 80.4. Under 40 is calm; 55–67 is moderate. Readings above 77 have occurred on 120 of the 184 days in our record, the last on 22 July 2026.

How often does the World Tension Index update?

Every ten minutes, around the clock. Twice a day, at 00:10 and 12:10 UTC, a full cycle re-reads every feed, refreshes the conflict roster and rebuilds every factor from scratch.

Is the score a prediction?

No. It measures pressure right now. Read it like a barometer: rising means storms are more likely, not certain. The direction over 7 and 30 days tells you more than any single day.

Where does the data come from?

From our own engine: 41 public news feeds, public attention data and open market prices. No third-party index sits inside the number. The full method, with every weight, is on the methodology page.