Data-driven geopolitical analysis

The US and Iran agreed a 2-week pause on April 7. Exactly what each side agreed to, what each claims victory on, and the five triggers that could collapse it before April 21.

Markets are celebrating the biggest single-day oil drop since the war began. What actually recovers fast, what takes months, and why oil will not return to $67.

Netanyahu said clearly: Lebanon is not part of the deal. Then Israel launched its biggest strikes on Beirut of the war. Why the Lebanon front could unravel the entire ceasefire.

Tariffs above 100% on key goods. But unlike 2018, this escalation is happening against war, dollar stress, and fractured supply chains. What it means for inflation.

A strong dollar is not just an American story — it is a global inflation mechanism that hits emerging markets, dollar debt, and commodity importers all at once.

The WTM Energy Security Index is at its highest since 2022. Three probability-weighted scenarios for oil from here — and what each means for inflation, gold, and the global economy.

Gold is up 62% in 6 months. Three forces are driving it simultaneously. Here is what the data says about whether $5,000 is next — and what would stop it.

The war will end. But the economic fallout will not simply reverse. Five probability-weighted scenarios for what happens next — and how to track which one plays out.

The overall score is 96 but the Finance signal is only 48. Markets are not panicking. Historically this gap always closes — the question is which direction.

China imports more oil than any country and has deep ties with Iran. The war is both a risk and an opportunity — and could accelerate the end of the petrodollar system.

Dubai benefits from $111 oil. But the non-oil economy faces real risks from trade disruption, tourism caution, and the dollar peg. Both sides of the story.

Pakistan imports 85% of its energy. With Hormuz under threat, here is exactly how the Iran war hits Pakistan harder than almost any other country in the world.

India imports 85% of its oil and has deep ties with both Iran and the US. The Iran war puts it in an impossible position. Here is the economic cost.

What does a score of 96 mean for your business? A concrete, actionable guide for importers, manufacturers, retailers, and investors. No jargon.

The Supreme Court struck them down but the inflation impact continues. New pharma tariffs just launched. One year of data on what Liberation Day really did.

The World Economic Forum named geoeconomic confrontation the #1 global risk. Here is how each WEF risk maps to WTM signals and what it means practically.

11 million people displaced. Year 3 of civil war. Here is why it matters economically — gold mining, food prices, Sahel spillover, and great power competition.

Silver has surged 100% from its 2022 lows and is now outpacing gold. This is an industrial metal story as much as a safe-haven story — and it has serious inflation implications.

Three major Asia-Pacific nations declared energy emergencies within two weeks of the Iran war escalating. Here is exactly why — and what it means for 2.4 billion people.

The US-Israel strikes on Iran pushed oil to $112. Here is exactly how this war threatens global inflation and which countries are most exposed.

Five signals simultaneously at extreme levels. Here is what is driving the record score and what history says happens next.

Gold at an all-time record is a signal about inflation expectations, dollar confidence, and how long this crisis lasts.

Iran has threatened to close the strait 20% of world oil passes through. Three scenarios, the probabilities, and what each means.

The largest drone attack in history happened and barely made headlines. Here is why it matters for Europe and global markets.

A data-driven look at global geopolitical risk. WTM score, key drivers, and what history says about markets at this level.

When risk rises, which assets protect you? We examine gold, bonds, cash, oil, BTC and more across five major crises.

Does Bitcoin actually protect against geopolitical risk? The data across five major crises gives a clear and surprising answer.

The VIX only measures equity volatility. Here is how to read it alongside geopolitical signals for a more complete picture.

Sanctions have direct economic consequences. Here is exactly how they transmit into higher prices.

The specific numbers professional investors watch to manage geopolitical risk. Most are free. All are important.

The 1930s Smoot-Hawley tariffs. The 1970s oil embargo. Each time, prices rose. What history says about today's trade tensions.

Complete, transparent explanation of every data source, weighting, and calculation behind our daily score.

Everyone says buy gold when inflation rises. But does the data support it? An honest, evidence-based look in 2026.

The Middle East holds a third of the world's oil. When it is unstable, prices rise everywhere.

You do not need to read 50 news articles a day. Here are the best signals to watch.

US tariffs are reshaping global trade and pushing prices up. A clear, honest look at how tariffs cause inflation.

When oil gets expensive, everything gets expensive. The real mechanism and what oil above $100 is telling us right now.

A geopolitical risk index turns complex global events into a single number. Here is how they work and why they matter.

Wars do not just kill people. They kill purchasing power too. Real data from Ukraine, the Middle East and beyond.

Wars, sanctions, and trade conflicts are among the most powerful drivers of inflation. Here is exactly how they work.