Best Assets During Geopolitical Crisis — What the Data Shows

When geopolitical stress rises — wars escalate, sanctions tighten, energy supply comes under threat — the conventional wisdom is to move into safe-haven assets. But which assets actually perform best? The answer depends significantly on the type of crisis, its duration, and how much of the risk markets have already priced in.

The asset hierarchy during geopolitical stress

Looking across major geopolitical stress events over the past two decades — the 2003 Iraq invasion, the 2008 financial crisis, the 2014 Crimea annexation, the 2020 COVID crash, and the 2022 Ukraine invasion — a consistent hierarchy emerges for the first 30-90 days of elevated stress:

1. Gold — the most consistent outperformer across geopolitical events
2. Short-duration government bonds (US Treasuries, German Bunds) — flight-to-quality reliable
3. USD and CHF — safe-haven currencies that strengthen during risk-off periods
4. Oil (long) — outperforms specifically during energy supply disruption events
5. Defensive equities (utilities, healthcare, consumer staples) — outperform cyclicals
6. Silver — performs well but more volatile than gold
7. Bitcoin — inconsistent, sometimes tracks risk-off, sometimes tracks equities down
8. Growth equities, EM assets, high-yield bonds — consistent underperformers

Gold: the consistent safe haven

Gold's safe-haven properties are well-documented across multiple decades and multiple types of crisis. It has outperformed equities during every major geopolitical stress event of the past 20 years on a 30-90 day basis. The current WTM score of 82 and gold price above $4,400 per ounce illustrates this dynamic in real-time — gold has been rising as geopolitical stress has accumulated throughout early 2026.

The mechanism is straightforward: gold has no counterparty risk, no yield to be disrupted by rate changes in crisis conditions, and a 5,000-year track record as a store of value. It does not require trust in any government, corporation, or institution. During periods of broad institutional distrust — which geopolitical crises often generate — these properties become acutely valuable.

Oil: the double-edged crisis asset

Oil is unusual among crisis assets because whether it is a hedge or a risk depends entirely on whether you are long or short, and what type of crisis is occurring. During energy supply disruption crises — the 1973 oil embargo, the 1990 Gulf War, the 2022 Ukraine invasion — long oil positions have been enormously profitable. During demand-destruction crises (recessions, COVID) — oil collapses.

The current environment of $101 Brent crude reflects genuine supply uncertainty. For holders of energy stocks or direct oil exposure, the current WTM score of 82 is supportive. For the broader economy and for consumers, $100+ oil is a significant inflationary headwind.

What to avoid when WTM is above 70

The historical data is clearest about what not to hold when geopolitical risk is elevated. Emerging market assets — equities, bonds, and currencies — have consistently underperformed during periods of elevated geopolitical stress. This is because EM assets typically benefit from global growth and open trade, both of which deteriorate when geopolitical risk rises. High-yield corporate bonds also underperform as credit spreads widen. Long-duration growth equities (technology, consumer discretionary) typically see multiple compression as discount rates rise.