A lot of indexes are black boxes. You get a number, you are told to trust it, and the methodology is buried in a 40-page technical document that nobody reads.
We think that is wrong. If you are going to use the World Tension Score to inform any decision — even just understanding the world better — you should know exactly where it comes from.
So here is the complete, honest explanation.
Five Signals, One Score
The World Tension Score is built from five independently measured signals. Each captures a different dimension of global geopolitical stress. Together, they paint a comprehensive picture of tension and its potential economic consequences.
1. Conflict Index (25% weight)
What it measures: The number and intensity of active armed conflicts globally.
Data sources: GDELT (Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone), ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project), news sources.
How it is scored: Current conflict count is compared to a 10-year baseline. A score of 0 means fewer conflicts than average; 100 means historically extreme conflict levels. Severity weighting means a major interstate war counts more than a localised internal conflict.
Today: 90/100. There are currently 22 active armed conflicts globally — well above the historical average of 12 to 15.
2. Energy Stress (20% weight)
What it measures: Oil and energy price levels relative to historical norms.
Data sources: Alpha Vantage (Brent crude), Yahoo Finance (oil futures), FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data).
How it is scored: Current oil price is normalised against a 5-year range. $60/barrel would score around 30; $120/barrel would score around 95. Additional weighting for price volatility.
Today: 85/100. Brent crude at $101/barrel.
3. Trade Disruption (20% weight)
What it measures: The degree to which global trade flows are being disrupted by tariffs, sanctions, and supply chain breakdowns.
Data sources: News-based sentiment analysis across trade and supply chain coverage, Baltic Dry Index trends, sanctions database updates.
How it is scored: A composite of tariff escalation signals, shipping disruption indicators, and supply chain stress. Calibrated against historical trade crisis episodes.
Today: 90/100. Reflects ongoing US-China tariff escalation and Red Sea shipping disruption.
4. Financial Stress (20% weight)
What it measures: Market-based stress indicators — how worried are financial markets?
Data sources: VIX (CBOE Volatility Index), US 10-year Treasury yield (FRED), gold price (XAU/USD), DXY (US dollar index).
How it is scored: A composite of four financial stress indicators, each normalised to a 0-100 scale. High VIX, elevated yields, rising gold, and a strong dollar all indicate stress.
Today: 47/100. Financial markets are showing moderate stress — not extreme, but elevated.
5. Media Sentiment (15% weight)
What it measures: The overall tone and intensity of global news coverage.
Data sources: NewsAPI coverage from BBC, Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera. Headline analysis across 50+ stories daily.
How it is scored: Natural language processing of headlines to score positive vs negative sentiment. Normalised against a baseline of typical news coverage. Crisis coverage scores 90+; calm periods score below 40.
Today: 92/100. News coverage is heavily dominated by conflict, crisis, and economic stress stories.
The Final Calculation
The five signals are combined using a weighted average:
WTM Score = (Conflict × 0.25) + (Energy × 0.20) + (Trade × 0.20) + (Financial × 0.20) + (Media × 0.15)
Today: (90×0.25) + (85×0.20) + (90×0.20) + (47×0.20) + (92×0.15) = 81 — Extreme Fear
Zone Definitions
- 0–25: Calm — Low geopolitical stress. Inflation risk from geopolitical sources is minimal.
- 26–40: Stable — Background noise level of global tension. Normal historical range.
- 41–65: Moderate — Elevated tensions in one or more regions. Worth watching.
- 66–80: High Tension — Multiple significant stress signals. Historical correlation with above-average inflation.
- 81–100: Extreme Fear — Crisis-level geopolitical pressure. High probability of economic consequences.