Regional Breakdown
Tension by Region
The WTM global score broken down by world region — showing where tension is highest, what's driving it, and what it means for inflation in each area.
Current WTM Global Score
—
Middle East driving global score to Extreme Fear
Iran war energy shock is the primary transmission mechanism to global inflation.
94
Extreme Fear
Middle East
+18 this week
Active US-Israel airstrikes on Iran · Oil above $100 · Hormuz threatening · Philippines, Australia energy emergencies declared
⚠️ Hormuz closure would remove 20% of global oil supply
US-Israel-Iran WarHormuz StandoffHouthi Red Sea attacks
Inflation impact:
High
78
High Tension
Europe
+4 this week
Largest ever drone attack · Trump Ukraine policy uncertainty · Russian energy infrastructure targeting · NATO cohesion stress
⚠️ Record 948 drones launched in 24h. Western support fracturing
Russo-Ukrainian WarRussian drone campaigns
Inflation impact:
Moderate — energy prices elevated but stabilising
72
High Tension
Africa
+6 this week
5 simultaneous major conflicts · Hospital strikes in Sudan · Wagner-backed coups · 12,000+ deaths across region in 2026
⚠️ Sudan: world's worst displacement crisis. Sahel expanding to coastal West Africa
Sudan Civil WarSahel InsurgencyCongo War
Inflation impact:
Gold and uranium supply risk · Food disruption from conflict zones
58
Moderate
Asia-Pacific
+3 this week
Philippines energy emergency · Myanmar opposition advances · Pakistan-India border clashes · China-Taiwan exercises continuing
⚠️ Oil shock from Iran war hitting Asian economies hardest
Myanmar Civil WarKashmir ConflictPakistan Insurgency
Inflation impact:
High import oil dependency. Iran war oil shock hitting ASEAN hardest
48
Moderate
Americas
0 this week
Cartel violence in Mexico · Haiti gang control at 85% · US-Venezuela military tensions · Ecuador insurgency escalating
⚠️ US-Venezuela classified as armed conflict in Jan 2026
Mexican Drug WarVenezuelan ConflictColombian Conflict
Inflation impact:
Limited global impact but US border friction adding supply chain costs
82
Extreme Fear
Global Economy
+12 this week
Oil above $100 · Gold at record highs · VIX elevated · Global South bearing brunt of Iran energy shock · Philippines, Australia, Japan all declaring energy emergencies
⚠️ IEA warns Iran war = worst energy shock since 1970s oil crisis
Iran war energy shockHormuz supply disruptionGlobal shipping disruption
Inflation impact:
CRITICAL — direct inflation transmission via energy prices