How the World Tension Score has moved in 2026
The World Tension Score began 2026 in the Moderate range (55–65), reflecting elevated but not acute global stress. Through February and early March, the score climbed steadily as energy market pressure increased alongside escalating conflict monitoring signals. By mid-March the score crossed into High Tension territory (above 66), and by late March reached 82 — firmly in Extreme Fear.
The sustained upward trend through 2026 reflects a genuine multi-signal deterioration rather than a single spike event. Oil prices have remained above $100 per barrel, the VIX has stayed elevated above 25, Treasury yields are at 4.39%, and media fear sentiment has been running at 92nd percentile levels. All five component signals are simultaneously elevated — the condition that produces the highest composite scores.
Historical context matters for interpreting these readings. A score of 82 is not unprecedented — equivalent conditions existed during the peak of the 2022 Ukraine energy crisis and the early 2020 COVID liquidity shock. What is notable about the current period is the persistence of the elevated reading rather than a brief spike, suggesting structural rather than temporary stress.
Score zones explained
The World Tension Score uses five zones to categorise global conditions. Each zone corresponds to a specific range of composite signal readings and has historically been associated with distinct asset market behaviours.