⚠️ Early Warning
Situations to Watch
Conflicts and flashpoints most likely to escalate in the near term — with direct links to inflation and global markets. Powered by WTM scoring data, updated every 12 hours.
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Critical
4
Escalating
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High Risk
8
Situations
CRITICAL
Middle East
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US-Israel-Iran War
Day 26+ of active strikes on Iran. US signalling ground escalation. Hormuz standoff threatening 20% of global oil supply. IEA warns of 1970s-level energy shock.
Watch for
US strikes on Iranian power plants · Iranian full Hormuz closure · Ground troops deployment · Third-country involvement (Russia, China)
Inflation link
Oil above $100 directly. Hormuz closure would push oil to $140-180 within weeks. Global shipping costs +300% via alternative routes.
ESCALATING
Europe
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Russo-Ukrainian War
Record 948 drone attack in 24h period. Western support uncertain under Trump. Peace talks preconditions irreconcilable. Front lines hardening into frozen conflict.
Watch for
Cease-fire negotiations collapse · NATO Article 5 trigger · Russian energy infrastructure attacks on EU · Nuclear posturing
Inflation link
European energy prices elevated. Grain exports from Black Sea still disrupted. Fertilizer costs globally +40% above pre-war baseline.
CRITICAL
Middle East
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Hormuz Strait Standoff
Iran threatening closure. Non-hostile ships allowed passage currently but situation precarious. Australia, Philippines declaring energy emergencies. Japan releasing national oil reserves.
Watch for
First ship seizure or sinking in Hormuz · Formal Iranian closure declaration · US Navy engagement with IRGC · Saudi Arabia pipeline diversions
Inflation link
Every week of Hormuz closure adds ~$15/barrel to oil price. Diesel, plastics, fertilizers, air freight all directly linked.
ESCALATING
Africa
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Sudan Civil War
RSF advancing in Khartoum, Al-Fasher under siege. 10M+ displaced — worst displacement crisis in the world. Hospital strikes continuing. No ceasefire in sight.
Watch for
Al-Fasher fall · Regional military intervention (Egypt, UAE, Ethiopia) · Famine declaration · Refugee spillover into Chad and Egypt
Inflation link
Limited direct global impact but gold mining disruption (Sudan is top 10 gold producer) affects commodity prices.
HIGH RISK
Middle East
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Middle East Energy Infrastructure
Iran vowing to destroy Gulf water and energy facilities. Saudi Aramco facilities within Iranian missile range. UAE energy infrastructure under threat. Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping ongoing.
Watch for
Strikes on Saudi/UAE oil facilities · Aramco production disruption · Red Sea full blockade · Gulf state entry into conflict
Inflation link
Saudi Arabia produces 10% of world oil. Any successful strike on Aramco would spike oil $20-40/barrel within hours. Food prices follow.
ESCALATING
Asia-Pacific
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Myanmar Civil War
Opposition forces (3 Brotherhoods Alliance) controlling major border areas. Military junta losing ground. China managing border stability. 2.7M+ displaced.
Watch for
Junta capital Naypyidaw threatened · China direct military intervention · Mass refugee flows to Thailand/India · Jade/rare earth supply disruption
Inflation link
Myanmar supplies 90% of world jade and significant rare earth minerals. Supply disruption affects electronics and jewelry globally.
ESCALATING
Africa
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Sahel Islamist Insurgency
Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger under de facto military governance aligned with Russia (Wagner). French/EU forces expelled. Al-Qaeda and ISIS expanding into coastal West Africa.
Watch for
Coastal West Africa (Benin, Ghana, Ivory Coast) spill · Wagner escalation in Libya · UN peacekeeping mission collapse
Inflation link
Sahel produces 50%+ of world's gold for some countries. Gold supply risk. Uranium from Niger critical for EU nuclear energy.
HIGH RISK
Asia-Pacific
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Philippine Energy Emergency
Philippines declared national energy emergency due to Iran war oil shock. Boosting coal power. 90% of fuel imported. Economic impact severe. Simultaneous South China Sea tensions.
Watch for
South China Sea Chinese military action · ASEAN energy emergency declarations · Asian country energy import competition
Inflation link
Oil import dependency across Asia means Iran war oil price spike flows directly into Asian CPI within 30-60 days.
See all 22 active conflicts
Full conflict database with severity, region, and WTM scores
Watchlist updated automatically based on WTM scoring signals. "Watch for" events are leading indicators that could trigger rapid score escalation. Inflation links are based on historical commodity correlation data, not predictions.