World Tension Meter

Geopolitical risk score — updated daily at 09:00 UTC  |  Tracks conflict, energy, trade & financial stress

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Active conflicts
Brent crude (USD)
Gold XAU/USD
Media fear score
Current tension score
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0–25
Calm
26–40
Stable
41–65
Moderate
66–80
High Tension
81–100
Extreme Fear
Contributing factors
Conflict index
Energy stress
Trade disruption
Financial stress
Media sentiment
0–25 Calm 26–40 Stable 41–65 Moderate 66–80 High Tension 81–100 Extreme Fear
Score = weighted average of 5 signals: Conflict 25% · Energy 20% · Trade 20% · Financial 20% · Media 15%. Each signal normalized 0–100. Updated daily at 09:00 UTC from GDELT, ACLED, FRED, and commodity APIs.
30-day history
Full 2026 history →
Key signals today
Conflict
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Historical scores — last 7 days
Date Score Status Change
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Data sources & methodology
Conflict signal (25%)
GDELT & ACLED databases
Active conflict tracking, media fear index
Energy signal (20%)
Yahoo Finance — BZ=F, GC=F
Brent crude oil & gold futures prices
Financial signal (20%)
FRED API — DGS10, ^VIX
10Y Treasury yield, VIX volatility index
Media signal (15%)
NewsAPI — Reuters, BBC, AP
NLP sentiment across major news sources
Score = weighted average of 5 signals updated twice daily at 00:00 & 12:00 UTC. Each signal normalized 0–100 against 5-year historical ranges. Full methodology at methodology.html.
What the World Tension Score measures

The World Tension Score is a composite geopolitical risk index that aggregates five independent signals — armed conflict intensity, energy market stress, trade disruption, financial volatility, and media sentiment — into a single number updated twice daily.

A rising score typically precedes increases in gold and oil prices, a widening of credit spreads, and elevated volatility in equity markets. Historically, scores above 70 have coincided with periods of heightened safe-haven demand — higher gold prices, lower equity valuations, and capital flight to USD and Treasury bonds.

Unlike single-variable risk indicators such as the VIX (which measures equity volatility only) or oil price alone, the WTM score incorporates geopolitical conflict data, media fear analysis, and cross-asset financial signals simultaneously. This makes it a more comprehensive early-warning indicator for inflationary pressure.

The current score of 82 places global conditions in the Extreme Fear range — meaning multiple simultaneous stress signals are elevated. Key drivers today include energy market pressure, active conflict monitoring, and financial stress indicators.

2026 score history → Gold & Silver Index → Crypto Fear & Greed → How geopolitics drives inflation → Oil prices and inflation → Full methodology →