While the world watches Iran and oil prices, the largest humanitarian crisis on earth is unfolding almost entirely out of the news cycle. Sudan's civil war, which began in April 2023, has now displaced more people than any other conflict in the world — over 11 million internally displaced, with millions more as refugees in neighbouring countries. Famine conditions have been declared in multiple regions.
Why does this matter for the World Tension Meter — and why should anyone outside Africa care about it economically?
Why Sudan Matters Economically
Sudan is not an oil superpower. It is not a major trading partner of the West. But it matters for four reasons that analysts consistently underweight.
1. Regional destabilisation and the Sahel spillover
Sudan borders seven countries: Egypt, Libya, Chad, Central African Republic, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea. Several of these are already fragile. Sudan's collapse is pushing fighters, weapons, and desperate populations across these borders, contributing to instability across the Sahel. The WTM Africa score at 74 reflects five simultaneous active conflicts on the continent — Sudan is the largest but not the only driver.
2. Food price transmission
Sudan was historically one of Africa's most agriculturally productive countries — the Nile delta has exceptional fertility. The war has collapsed agricultural production in key regions. For Sudan's neighbours, who depend partly on regional food trade, this means higher food prices. For global grain markets, the effect is modest — but it adds to a global food price environment already stressed by Ukraine, climate disruptions, and tariffs.
3. Gold and critical minerals
Sudan is Africa's third-largest gold producer. The civil war has not stopped gold mining — it has transferred control of it. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) now controls most of Sudan's gold-producing regions and is reportedly exporting gold through the UAE, using the revenues to fund its war effort. This means conflict-linked gold is entering global markets, and the RSF has a direct financial incentive to continue fighting regardless of civilian costs.
4. Great power competition proxy
Sudan has become a theatre for competing external interests. The UAE backs the RSF. Egypt and Saudi Arabia broadly support the Sudanese Armed Forces. Russia has sought basing rights on the Red Sea coast. China has significant infrastructure investments it wants protected. This layered external involvement makes Sudan harder to resolve and more consequential geopolitically.
Why It Gets Ignored and Why That Matters
The media attention gap for Sudan relative to its humanitarian scale is striking. The Iran war, which has so far caused far fewer civilian casualties, dominates global coverage. Sudan, despite being the world's worst displacement crisis, struggles to generate sustained international attention.
This is precisely the kind of situation the WTM's event memory system is designed to handle. The conflict does not vanish from our score when the news cycle moves on. Sudan's War event memory continues decaying slowly — over a 60-day half-life for a major war — keeping it as a persistent contributor to the conflict score even during periods of low media coverage.
For supply chain planners, the operational lesson from Sudan is to watch the Sahel broadly — not just the specific countries currently in crisis. Instability in Sudan will continue to move across borders. The WTM Regional Tensions page tracks Africa as a region with a 74/100 score, which flags it as High Tension — a level that historically precedes further deterioration.