Backtesting & Historical Record
The black line is the World Tension Index. Overlays are min–max normalized onto the same canvas so shapes can be compared directly — toggle them above.
Biggest Single-Day Moves
| # | Date | Move | Closed at |
|---|
An honest backtest
This page shows the index's actual recorded history against major market series — no simulations, no retro-fitted data. The record starts the day the engine started and grows by exactly one row per day. As the archive lengthens, so does the evidence.
How the Model Reads Past Crises
2020 — COVID crash
Global lockdowns collapsed supply chains overnight. Oil demand evaporated — Brent futures briefly traded negative — while volatility and safe-haven demand exploded. A crisis led by finance and trade signals rather than conflict.
2022 — Russia-Ukraine
The largest land war in Europe since WWII, launched by the world’s largest gas exporter and second-largest oil producer. Conflict, energy and food signals surged together — the archetypal multi-channel shock.
2024 — Red Sea crisis
Attacks on Red Sea shipping forced vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days per voyage. A trade-led episode: freight and chokepoint signals spiked while finance stayed comparatively calm.
2025 — Tariff wave
Sweeping tariffs across major trading partners. Trade and currency signals carried the move — a reminder that economic conflict registers even without a shot fired.
2026 — Iran conflict
Direct military conflict involving a nuclear-capable state beside the world’s most critical oil chokepoint. Conflict, energy and shipping signals elevated simultaneously — the live record above shows it as it happened.
Honesty note: scores before the live record began are modeled estimates, applied retroactively with the current methodology — useful for shape, not exact values. The live ledger above is the real test, growing one row per day, never edited.