Less than two hours before Trump's self-imposed deadline to "destroy a whole civilisation," the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on the evening of April 7, 2026. Pakistan brokered the deal. The WTM score, which peaked at 97 during the final hours before the agreement, dropped sharply as oil futures crashed 15% overnight. But this is not peace. It is a 14-day pause — and the terms are already being disputed by the parties that just signed it.

14
Days ceasefire lasts
97→83
WTM score before / after
-15%
Oil price drop overnight
Apr 10
Islamabad talks date

What Was Actually Agreed

The core exchange is straightforward: the US and Israel suspend bombing Iran for two weeks. In return, Iran commits to allowing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz — under Iranian military coordination — for those two weeks. Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who spent 48 hours as the primary mediator, announced the deal on X moments after Trump posted his ceasefire statement on Truth Social.

Trump described receiving a "10-point proposal" from Iran, which he called "a workable basis on which to negotiate." He said almost all points of contention had been agreed upon and that the two-week period would allow a "definitive agreement" to be finalised. The US and Iran are set to hold formal peace talks in Islamabad on April 10, with Vice President JD Vance expected to lead the American delegation.

What Each Side Claims

This is where things immediately become complicated. Iran's Supreme National Security Council declared the ceasefire a victory, stating that "nearly all the objectives of the war have been achieved." Iranian officials pointed to their 10-point proposal — which includes lifting all sanctions, releasing frozen Iranian assets overseas, withdrawal of US combat forces from regional bases, reparations, and the right to nuclear enrichment — as the framework for the deal.

Trump described the same ceasefire as the US having "already met and exceeded all Military objectives." He also posted that "there will be no enrichment of uranium" in Iran and threatened 50% tariffs on any country supplying weapons to Tehran — suggesting the US position on nuclear enrichment has not moved at all. Two sides claiming victory on incompatible terms is not a good sign for the Islamabad talks.

WTM Signal Watch: The ceasefire is real and the WTM score will drop — but the event memory system will keep the score elevated until sustained de-escalation is confirmed. The Hormuz closure event has a 21-day half-life in the model. Even with a ceasefire, the score will not fall below 75 until Hormuz is demonstrably reopened and tanker traffic normalises. Watch the Shipping Stress Index — it is the most direct signal for whether the ceasefire is holding in practice.

Five Things That Could Break It

  1. Hormuz transit disputes. Iran said vessels can pass "via coordination with Iran's armed forces." That means Iran controls who passes and when. The US and international shipping companies may not accept Iranian military vetting of every tanker. This operational friction could trigger incidents within days.
  2. Israel and Lebanon. Netanyahu immediately said the ceasefire "does not include Lebanon." Israel launched its biggest strikes on Beirut within hours of the ceasefire announcement. If Hezbollah retaliates into Israel, and Israel strikes back into Lebanon, and Iran interprets that as a violation of the broader deal — the ceasefire collapses.
  3. Nuclear enrichment disagreement. Iran's 10-point proposal explicitly demands the right to enrich uranium. Trump explicitly said there will be "no enrichment." This is not a minor gap — it is the core issue that has defined US-Iran relations for 20 years. The Islamabad talks on April 10 will immediately hit this wall.
  4. IRGC compliance. A US official acknowledged it "might take time for the ceasefire order to filter down to the lower ranks of the Revolutionary Guards." Missiles were launched from Iran toward Israel and Gulf states within hours of the ceasefire announcement. Rogue strikes by IRGC units not following the Supreme Leader's order could invalidate the deal.
  5. Sanctions and assets. Iran demands all sanctions be lifted and frozen assets returned as part of any permanent deal. The US Congress — which would need to approve sanctions relief — has not been consulted. Trump cannot deliver this unilaterally, and Iran knows it.
Bottom line: This ceasefire is real and markets are right to price in relief. But the two-week window is extremely tight to resolve disputes that have festered for 40 years. The most likely outcome is a ceasefire extension rather than a permanent deal. The worst-case outcome is a breakdown before April 21 as the Islamabad talks fail on the nuclear enrichment question. Track the WTM score daily — it will be the fastest available signal for whether the fragile peace is holding.