Sanctions Pressure Index

How hard the sanctions machine is running. The Sanctions Pressure Index measures momentum, not the pile. It reads what share of world coverage is about new sanctions, enforcement and export controls, adds stress in sanctioned currencies, and weighs the regimes already in force.

Why it matters. Sanctions are economic warfare. They reroute trade, fragment payment systems and add friction costs that surface as inflation months later. They also tell you where the next confrontation is being fought.

How we score it. Coverage share is compared with our own history, so a busy sanctions week scores high whether the target is large or small. A quiet week with many old sanctions still in place scores low. That is deliberate: the index reads the pace of the machine.

• New sanction packages — especially secondary sanctions that hit third countries.
• Enforcement actions — seizures, delistings, bank fines and shadow-fleet crackdowns.
• Sanctioned-currency stress — the rouble, rial and others under pressure.
• Sanction relief — deals that lift measures pull the score down quickly.

Today: 25 — Low. The sanctions machine is quiet.

Direction: it rose 2 points over the last 7 days and fell 12 points over 30 days. Our record since 4 April averages 47.5, so today sits below its own normal.

The scale. Under 40 is quiet. 40–54 is routine enforcement. 55–67 means new packages are landing every week. Above 67 means a major sanctions campaign is under way.

October 2026 so far. Average 24.8 over 4 days. Peak 25 on 2 October, low 24 on 1 October. Read the October story →

Last month averaged 28.5, so this month is running lower by 3.7. Every month on record →

Do sanctions cause inflation?

Usually yes, with a lag. Redirected trade costs more, payment workarounds cost more and supply gets thinner. We wrote the full chain of cause and effect in How Sanctions Cause Inflation.

Which countries does the index cover?

Any country in the news for sanctions. Russia, Iran and North Korea dominate the coverage, with chip and technology export controls an increasingly common theme in 2026.

Why can the score be low when thousands of sanctions exist?

Because it measures momentum. A low score means no new packages and no big enforcement stories this week, not that sanctions were lifted.

Where does it feed?

Sanctions carry 20% of the Supply Chain Risk Index and sit inside the trade factor of the World Tension Index.