What is the Currency Stress Index?

The WTM Currency Stress Index measures pressure on the global currency system, primarily through the US Dollar Index (DXY) and four key currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CNY, and GBP/USD. A rising score means the dollar is strengthening aggressively, increasing pressure on emerging market economies with dollar-denominated debt.

How does a strong dollar cause inflation in emerging markets?

When the dollar strengthens, countries with dollar-denominated debt see their debt servicing costs rise in local currency terms. Import costs rise proportionally to currency weakness. Pakistan, Egypt, Kenya, and Argentina — all with significant dollar debt — face import inflation that can be 2–3× more severe than in dollar-economy countries when the DXY rises above 105.

What DXY level signals emerging market crisis risk?

A DXY above 105 historically creates significant EM stress. Above 110 typically precedes EM debt crises and currency interventions. The WTM Currency Stress Index scores the DXY on a 0–100 scale — a DXY above 108 scores above 75, entering the EM Crisis Risk zone.

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Currency Stress Index today: 25 · Calm · 2026-10-04 03:40 UTC

Currency Stress Index timeline → month-by-month history with the headlines behind each score

What this means: The dollar is calm. Emerging-market currencies have room to breathe.

Currency Stress Index

Calm

Dollar strength and stress across the major currency pairs — when the dollar tightens, the world feels it.

24h 7d 30d

Updated 2026-10-04 03:40 UTC · engine v4

History

Components

Other Indexes

What today’s number is made of

live mix · confidence

Signal mix

Market prices 48% · News corpus 46% · Public attention 6%

Prices are measured, not read. Headlines are counted against our own history. Attention is ranked against three years. How this is computed

Confidence today

72Good

50 headlines from 4 sources this cycle · 1 estimated field(s) · data 0.0 h old. Low confidence does not mean the number is wrong — it means fewer signals stand behind it today. How this is computed

What the Currency Stress Index tracks

The dollar’s weather report. The Currency Stress Index watches the major pairs — euro, yen, yuan and pound against the US dollar, plus the dollar index itself — and scores how far each has moved from calm conditions.

Why it matters. A strong dollar makes imported food, fuel and debt more expensive for most of the world. When emerging-market currencies fall fast, import prices in those countries rise just as fast.

How we score it. Every pair gets a score from its move and its volatility against its own recent range. The dollar index sets the overall direction. The result is a stress reading, not a forecast of where any currency goes next.

What pushes the Currency Stress up or down

The dollar index — a sharp rise stresses every other currency at once.
Yen and yuan moves — the two currencies that matter most for Asian trade and global funding.
Sterling — the pound is the most rate-sensitive of the majors and often moves first.
Rate decisions and capital flight — central-bank surprises and headlines about money leaving a country.

How to read today’s number

refreshed every 10 minutes

Today: 25 — Calm. The dollar is calm. Emerging-market currencies have room to breathe.

Direction: it rose 4 points over the last 7 days and rose 9 points over 30 days. Our record since 4 April averages 25.4, so today sits close to its own normal.

The most stressed pair is USDJPY at 157.83 (-0.1% today).

The scale. Under 40 is calm: currencies are moving inside their normal ranges. 40–54 is stable. 55–67 is moderate stress. Above 67 means a disorderly move is under way somewhere.

This month so far

October 2026 so far. Average 25.0 over 4 days. Peak 25 on 1 October, low 25 on 1 October. Read the October story →

Last month averaged 17.4, so this month is running higher by 7.6. Every month on record →

Questions people ask about the Currency Stress Index

Is a strong dollar good or bad?

It depends where you live. For Americans it makes imports cheaper. For everyone else it makes fuel, food and dollar debt dearer. This index reads the stress, not the winner.

Which currencies are in the Currency Stress Index?

The euro, yen, yuan and pound against the dollar, plus the dollar index. Each pair is scored on its own before we combine them, so one wild currency cannot hide behind three calm ones.

Why does this move more slowly than gold?

Currencies are the deepest markets on earth. It takes a real shock to move them far. Gold reacts to fear in minutes; the yen reacts to fear over weeks.

Does it include crypto?

No. Crypto has its own Fear & Greed Index. This one is only about national currencies.

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