Food Security Index

Food is the single largest component of the consumer price index in most developing economies — often 30–50% of household spending. When grain prices spike, inflation follows within months, and history links food-price shocks to social unrest.

Concentration makes the system fragile: before 2022, Ukraine alone supplied roughly 30% of global wheat exports, and the disruption of that supply raised bread prices across the Middle East and Africa within a season.

This index tracks wheat, corn and rice futures against their own multi-year ranges — the three grains that feed most of humanity.

Grain prices, translated. The Food Security Index watches wheat, corn and rice — the three grains that feed most of the planet — and turns their price moves into one 0–100 stress score.

Why you feel it. Grain does not sit in your shopping basket, but it sits inside bread, noodles, chicken feed and cooking oil. A rise that lasts tends to reach supermarket shelves three to six months later.

How we score it. Each grain gets its own score from how far today’s price sits above its recent range. We weight the three together, then check our news corpus for export bans, drought and fertiliser-cost stories that say the move has legs.

• Wheat, corn and rice futures — the core of the score, read against each grain’s own recent range.
• Export restrictions — a single big exporter closing its ports moves rice and wheat fast.
• Weather and harvest news — drought, floods and failed crops in the top producers.
• Fertiliser and fuel costs — natural gas is the raw material for fertiliser, so energy stress leaks in here.

Today: 46 — Moderate. Grain prices are above normal. Expect slow, steady food inflation.

Direction: it fell 11 points over the last 7 days and fell 4 points over 30 days. Our record since 4 April averages 42.6, so today sits above its own normal.

The most stressed grain is rice at $16.36 (-0.9%).

The scale. Under 40 means grain markets are calm. 40–54 is normal. 55–67 is moderate stress. Above 67 means prices are high enough to hurt importing countries.

October 2026 so far. Average 46.2 over 4 days. Peak 47 on 1 October, low 46 on 2 October. Read the October story →

Last month averaged 51.8, so this month is running lower by 5.6. Every month on record →

Does a high Food Security score mean famine?

No. It means grain prices are stressed. Famine is about access and conflict, not just price. But most food emergencies begin with a price spike, so a high score is the early warning, not the emergency.

Which grain matters most?

Wheat, by a distance. It is the most traded and the most political. Rice moves less often but further, because so little of it crosses borders — a small shock has a big effect.

How fast do grain prices reach my food bill?

In our record so far: three to six months for packaged food, faster for bread and flour, slower for meat because feed costs take time to work through.

Is this index inside other WTM numbers?

Yes. It carries 25% of the Inflation Pressure Index, second only to energy, because food is the bill everyone pays every week.