Shipping Stress Index

What it costs to move things. The Shipping Stress Index tracks dry-bulk freight rates — the price of moving grain, coal and ore by sea — and adds route trouble from our news corpus: Red Sea, Suez, Black Sea, Taiwan Strait and Panama.

Why you feel it. Freight is a hidden line in every price tag. When a chokepoint closes, ships take the long way round, insurance jumps and the extra cost lands on the shelf a few weeks later.

A note on estimated data. When a freight print is not available, the engine carries an estimate and marks the page “est.” We would rather show a flagged estimate than a silent gap.

• Dry-bulk freight rates — the core reading; rising rates mean ships are scarce or routes are long.
• Chokepoint headlines — attacks, closures and reroutings around the Red Sea, Suez, Hormuz and the Black Sea.
• Port strikes and congestion — ships waiting outside ports cost money every day.
• Container shortages — a sign the system is stretched even when rates lag.

Today: 42 — Elevated. Freight costs are up and routes are strained. Expect some delays and surcharges.

Direction: it rose 1 points over the last 7 days and rose 7 points over 30 days. Our record since 4 April averages 51.7, so today sits below its own normal.

The freight reading is 1800 (estimated — carried forward until a fresh print arrives).

The scale. Under 40 means freight is cheap and routes are open. 40–54 is normal. 55–67 is moderate strain. Above 67 means a major route is disrupted or rates have spiked.

October 2026 so far. Average 43.2 over 4 days. Peak 45 on 1 October, low 42 on 4 October. Read the October story →

Last month averaged 37.8, so this month is running higher by 5.4. Every month on record →

What is a chokepoint?

A narrow sea lane most cargo has to pass through — Suez, Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb, Malacca, Panama. Close one and ships add weeks and thousands of dollars per container.

Why is this index sometimes marked “est.”?

Because the freight rate we read is not published every day. On those days the engine carries the last reading forward and flags it. The flag clears the moment a fresh print arrives.

How does shipping feed the other indexes?

It is the largest input to the Supply Chain Risk Index at 40%, and carries 20% of the Inflation Pressure Index.

Does it cover air freight?

No. Air freight is a small share of world trade by weight. Sea freight decides what your goods cost.