What is the Energy Security Index?

The WTM Energy Security Index is a composite score tracking global energy supply security through Brent crude prices, natural gas prices, oil price volatility, and the gold-oil ratio. It scores from 0–100, where above 75 indicates Critical Risk conditions that historically precede 2–4% CPI uplift within 90 days.

How does oil price affect inflation?

Every 10% rise in oil prices adds approximately 0.3–0.5% directly to headline CPI in major importing economies through fuel, transport, and petrochemical costs. For energy-import dependent countries like Pakistan, the impact is 2–3× higher. The effect reaches consumer prices within 30–60 days of an oil price move.

What is the Strait of Hormuz and why does it matter for inflation?

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which approximately 20% of global oil supply passes daily. A closure or significant disruption would immediately remove 20 million barrels per day from global supply, pushing oil prices to $140–180/barrel within weeks and triggering a global inflation shock comparable to 1973.

Home › …

Energy Security Index today: 51 · Moderate · 2026-10-04 03:50 UTC

Energy Security Index timeline → month-by-month history with the headlines behind each score

What this means: Energy prices are elevated. Expect gradual fuel and electricity increases.

Energy Security Index

Moderate

Oil, gas, oil volatility and the gold-oil ratio — the fastest route from geopolitics to household bills.

24h 7d 30d

Updated 2026-10-04 03:50 UTC · engine v4

History

Components

Other Indexes

What today’s number is made of

live mix · confidence

Signal mix

Market prices 48% · News corpus 46% · Public attention 6%

Prices are measured, not read. Headlines are counted against our own history. Attention is ranked against three years. How this is computed

Confidence today

72Good

50 headlines from 4 sources this cycle · 1 estimated field(s) · data 0.0 h old. Low confidence does not mean the number is wrong — it means fewer signals stand behind it today. How this is computed

What the Energy Security Index tracks

Oil, gas and how nervous the market is. The Energy Security Index reads crude and natural-gas prices, how violently they are moving, and the gold-to-oil ratio — a quick tell for whether investors expect supply trouble.

Why it matters most. Energy is the input to everything else. It is the fastest cost to reach your fuel pump and your electricity bill, which is why it carries the largest weight, 35%, in our Inflation Pressure Index.

How we score it. Prices are scored against their own recent range, so a $100 barrel counts as stress only if the market was used to $75. Volatility adds points because fast moves mean nobody knows where supply is going.

What pushes the Energy Security up or down

Crude oil price — the main input; supply threats in the Gulf move it within hours.
Natural gas price — electricity, heating and fertiliser costs follow it.
Volatility — a jumpy market scores higher than a calm one at the same price.
Supply headlines — Strait of Hormuz threats, OPEC+ decisions, pipeline and refinery attacks.

How to read today’s number

refreshed every 10 minutes

Today: 51 — Moderate. Energy prices are elevated. Expect gradual fuel and electricity increases.

Direction: it fell 5 points over the last 7 days and rose 15 points over 30 days. Our record since 4 April averages 32.4, so today sits above its own normal.

Crude is at $102.25 and natural gas at $3.035; the volatility reading is 1.3 and the gold-to-oil ratio 40.7.

The scale. Under 40 is calm. 40–54 is normal. 55–67 means prices are elevated and moving. Above 67 means an energy shock is under way.

This month so far

October 2026 so far. Average 50.8 over 4 days. Peak 51 on 2 October, low 50 on 1 October. Read the October story →

Last month averaged 46.5, so this month is running higher by 4.3. Every month on record →

Questions people ask about the Energy Security Index

Why is energy the biggest weight in Inflation Pressure?

Because it reaches your bills first. Petrol prices change in days, electricity in a month or two, and the cost of everything shipped or made with energy follows.

Does a falling oil price lower the score straight away?

Mostly, yes. Energy stress fades faster than conflict stress because a cheaper barrel is visible immediately. Volatility keeps some points in place until the market settles.

What is the gold-to-oil ratio for?

It shows what investors fear. When gold outruns oil, they expect financial trouble; when oil outruns gold, they expect a supply crisis. The engine reads the swing.

Is renewable energy included?

Not yet. Wind and solar do not have a world price. The index reads the fuels that still set the marginal cost of power almost everywhere.

Keep exploring