Food Security & Inflation Index — Real-Time Commodity Stress

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0 = no stress · 100 = extreme

The Food Security Index combines wheat, corn, and rice commodity prices with FAO food price data, tracking how much geopolitical disruption — wars, sanctions, export bans — is feeding through into global food inflation.

0–35 Stable 36–60 Stressed 61–80 High Risk 81–100 Crisis

Live commodity prices

Wheat (CBOT) $/bu

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Stress score—

Range: $400–$900/bu · War adds 20–40% premium

Corn (CBOT) $/bu

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Stress score—

Range: $350–$800/bu · Biofuel + food demand

Rice ($/cwt)

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Stress score—

Feeds 3.5B people · Export bans = instant spike

Contributing factors

Wheat price stress

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Corn price stress

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Rice price stress

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Geopolitical premium

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Score = Wheat 35% + Corn 25% + Rice 20% + Geopolitical premium 20%. Geopolitical premium derived from WTM Conflict × Trade signal. Updated twice daily. Full methodology →

Why food prices matter for inflation

Food is the single largest component of the consumer price index in most developing economies — often 30–50% of household spending in South Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. When wheat, corn, or rice prices spike due to geopolitical disruption, it transmits directly into CPI within 60–90 days.

Ukraine provided 30% of global wheat exports before 2022. When that supply was disrupted, bread prices rose across the Middle East and Africa within months. Sudan, Egypt, and Pakistan — all heavily wheat-dependent — saw food inflation above 40% in 2022–23.

The geopolitical premium component tracks how much of the current food price spike is driven by conflict and disruption versus normal supply/demand. When the WTM Conflict signal is above 70, the geopolitical premium adds 15–25 points to the food stress score.

How war causes inflation → Current World Tension Score → How sanctions cause food price spikes →