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0 = open · 100 = severe disruption
The Shipping Stress Index combines the Baltic Dry Index (bulk cargo), an oil-price proxy for tanker stress, and geopolitical route risk — Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz, Taiwan Strait — into a single trade disruption score.
0–35 Open
36–60 Disrupted
61–80 High Stress
81–100 Crisis
Key shipping indicators
Baltic Dry Index
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Bulk cargo demand proxy
Normal: 1,200–2,500 · High: 2,500+
Oil Transport Stress
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Score 0–100 (oil price proxy)
Derived from Brent crude + Hormuz risk
Composite Score
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BDI + Oil + Route risk weighted
Critical shipping routes — current status
Strait of Hormuz
⚠ Elevated Risk
20% of world oil passes here. Iran-US conflict creates direct closure risk. Insurance premiums up 40–60%.
WTM Energy signal: —/100
Red Sea / Suez
⚠ Active Disruption
Houthi attacks continue sporadically. Container ships still rerouting via Cape of Good Hope — adding 10–14 days.
Route status: Partial disruption
Strait of Malacca
✓ Open
40% of world trade passes here. Currently open and operating normally. Key chokepoint for Asia-Pacific energy supply.
No current disruption reported
Taiwan Strait
⚠ Monitored
China military exercises ongoing. Not currently disrupted but elevated tension risk. Key semiconductor supply route.
WTM Trade signal monitoring
Black Sea
⚠ Restricted
Ukraine war continues to restrict Black Sea shipping. Odesa port operational but under periodic threat. Grain corridor fragile.
Ukraine grain exports restricted
Panama Canal
↓ Low Water
Drought-reduced water levels limiting vessel passage since late 2023. Climate-driven disruption compounding geopolitical stress.
Capacity at 60–70% of normal
Stress factor breakdown
Score = BDI stress 30% + Oil proxy 35% + Red Sea proxy 20% + WTM Trade signal 15%.
Red Sea proxy derived from WTM Conflict signal and media sentiment on maritime keywords.
Full methodology →
Why shipping stress drives inflation
Shipping is the circulatory system of global trade. When routes are disrupted, goods take longer and cost more to move — and those costs pass through to consumer prices within 60–90 days. The Red Sea crisis of 2024 pushed container rates from $1,500 to $8,000 per 40ft container in six weeks.
The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical single chokepoint — 20% of global oil and 17% of global LNG passes through it. A two-week closure would push oil above $140 and send LNG spot prices to 2022 crisis levels.
For Dubai specifically — Jebel Ali Port handles 80% of Middle East containerised trade. Any significant Gulf disruption hits Dubai's trade hub position directly, even though UAE exports benefit from higher oil.