Within two weeks of the US-Israel strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on March 5, three major Asia-Pacific nations made declarations that rarely happen in peacetime: Japan released strategic oil reserves, the Philippines declared a national energy emergency, and Australia activated its national fuel security framework.
These are not small countries. They are major economies with sophisticated energy infrastructure. When all three act within days of each other, it signals that the Asia-Pacific region — already heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil — is staring directly into an energy crisis it is not prepared for.
Why Asia Is More Exposed Than Europe
Europe gets the headlines in energy crises because of the Russia-Ukraine war. But Asia's structural exposure to a Hormuz disruption is actually more severe than Europe's was to Russian gas cuts — and for a simple reason: there is no pipeline alternative.
When Russian gas stopped flowing to Europe, the continent could build LNG terminals, buy US LNG, and reduce consumption. It was painful and expensive, but there were physical alternatives within 12–18 months.
If Hormuz closes, Asian countries cannot redirect their oil supply. Most of it comes through that strait — not through pipelines, not from nearby sources. The geographical alternatives (Cape of Good Hope rerouting) add 10–14 days to every voyage and significant fuel costs. Strategic reserves last 90 days at normal consumption. After that, economies start shutting down.
Japan: The Most Exposed Major Economy
Japan is the world's third-largest economy and imports virtually all of its oil. Before the Iran war, approximately 85% of Japan's crude oil imports came from Gulf states — Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq — with nearly all of it transiting Hormuz.
Japan has 145 days of strategic reserve coverage. That sounds like a lot — until you consider that a Hormuz closure could cut Japanese oil imports by 80% for as long as the closure lasts. Japan's reserve release on March 22 was preemptive — a signal to markets and domestic consumers that the government is watching the situation.
The Philippines: Least Buffered
The Philippines declared a national energy emergency on March 20 — the earliest of the three declarations. This reflects the country's extremely limited strategic reserve capacity (less than 30 days) and its high sensitivity to oil prices. The Philippines imports nearly all of its oil and gas. Energy costs are a significant share of household spending for the country's 115 million people.
The Philippine government immediately suspended fuel taxes as a short-term measure. But this is unsustainable if oil stays above $100 for months — the fiscal cost becomes prohibitive.
The Wider Asia-Pacific Picture
South Korea (which imports 70% of its crude from the Gulf), India (which has been buying discounted Russian oil but relies on Gulf sources for the rest), and Taiwan (which has limited strategic reserves) are all watching the Hormuz situation with acute concern.
What a Real Supply Disruption Would Look Like
A two-week Hormuz closure would trigger a cascade in Asia-Pacific: immediate fuel rationing in the Philippines and smaller economies, emergency reserve drawdowns across Japan and South Korea, sharp currency depreciation in energy-importing emerging economies, and a manufacturing slowdown as input costs spike. LNG prices would also surge because much of Asia's LNG also transits or originates from the Gulf.
The IEA has emergency coordination mechanisms for exactly this scenario. Member countries (which include Japan, South Korea, and Australia but not the Philippines, India, or most of Southeast Asia) would coordinate reserve releases. Non-IEA members would be largely on their own.
This is not a prediction. It is a risk quantification — which is exactly what the WTM Asia-Pacific score at 70 represents: elevated but not yet materialised risk, with significant downside if the Hormuz situation deteriorates.