While the world watches Hormuz and counts Iran's centrifuges, the largest humanitarian crisis on earth is unfolding largely unnoticed in Sudan. The civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary has killed tens of thousands and displaced over 10 million people — the largest displacement crisis in the world, surpassing even Ukraine.
It is one of the primary reasons the Africa regional score on the World Tension Meter sits at 86 out of 100. And it has consequences that extend far beyond Africa's borders.
Why Sudan Barely Makes the News
There is an uncomfortable truth about how Western media covers conflict: proximity and familiarity matter more than scale. Ukraine is covered because it involves a European country with extensive Western connections. Sudan's war, despite being far larger in humanitarian terms, receives a fraction of the coverage.
This media asymmetry has real consequences. Aid funding is lower than the crisis warrants. Political pressure for a ceasefire is limited. And the economic consequences — particularly for food prices — are not being adequately factored into global market analysis.
Sudan's Role in Global Food Supply
Sudan is one of Africa's largest agricultural producers. Before the war, it was a significant exporter of sesame, groundnuts, sorghum, and livestock. The civil war has destroyed agricultural infrastructure, displaced farming communities, and disrupted supply routes throughout the Sahel region.
The ripple effects have pushed food insecurity in neighbouring countries — Chad, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Central African Republic — to emergency levels. These are countries that import significant amounts of food from Sudan and use Sudan as a transit corridor for goods from the Red Sea.
The Five Simultaneous Africa Conflicts
What makes Africa's score so elevated is not one crisis but five running in parallel:
- Sudan Civil War — SAF vs RSF. Khartoum destroyed. 10M+ displaced. No ceasefire in sight.
- Sahel Insurgency — Al-Qaeda and ISIS affiliates across Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger. French withdrawal has created a security vacuum. Wagner Group filling it, with mixed results.
- Congo War — M23 rebels backed by Rwanda have taken Goma. Eastern Congo is effectively a war zone. Coltan and gold mines at risk — these are supply chain inputs for global electronics.
- Nigerian Conflicts — Boko Haram successor groups, farmer-herder violence, and armed separatism across multiple regions. Africa's largest economy is significantly constrained by internal conflict.
- Ethiopian Conflict — Post-Tigray war tensions remain, with new conflicts emerging in Amhara and Oromia regions.
The Global Inflation Connection
Africa's conflicts matter for global inflation in three specific ways that most analysis ignores:
Food price transmission: Africa is a net food importer but also a significant producer of specific commodities. When African agricultural production falls, global commodity prices — particularly for sesame, groundnuts, and specialty crops — increase. These feed into global food price indices.
Mineral supply disruption: The Congo conflict directly threatens coltan supply (used in capacitors in every smartphone), cobalt (used in EV batteries), and gold. Supply disruptions here have long supply chains into finished goods prices globally.
Migration pressure: Large-scale African migration — driven by conflict and climate — is creating political pressures in European countries that are translating into policy responses (border controls, trade restrictions) with their own economic costs.
What to Watch
The Sudan ceasefire talks have repeatedly collapsed. A negotiated settlement remains possible but has not been achieved in over two years of fighting. For the WTM Africa score to fall significantly, at least two of the five active conflicts would need to de-escalate simultaneously — which is not on any visible timeline.
The more likely scenario: Africa's WTM score stays elevated at 80–90 throughout 2026, contributing to a background of food price inflation and supply chain stress that compounds with the Iran war's energy shock.