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Energy Security Index

Tracks global energy supply security through Brent crude, natural gas, price volatility and the gold-oil ratio. High energy insecurity is a leading inflation indicator — price spikes typically feed into CPI within 60–90 days. Updated every 5 minutes.

Critical Risk

Updated 2026-04-04

Secure (0)ModerateCritical (100)

Composite energy security score / 100

Scores above 75 have historically preceded 2–4% CPI uplift within 90 days in oil-importing economies. Scores above 90 indicate potential 1970s-style supply shock conditions.

🛒 Brent Crude ($/bbl)

$111.22

Stress score: 75/100

🔥 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu)

$3.84

Stress score: 23/100

📈 Weekly Volatility

8.2%

Oil price weekly change

🏎 Gold / Oil Ratio

42.3

Low = oil expensive vs. gold (danger signal)

Score zones

0 – 35: Secure

Oil below $80, low volatility, ample global supply.

35 – 55: Moderate

Elevated but manageable. Inflation contained.

55 – 75: High Risk

Energy driving CPI. Strategic reserves being tapped.

75+: Critical Risk

1973-level supply shock conditions. Emergency protocols active.

Current situation — April 2026

The US-Israel-Iran conflict has pushed Brent crude above $111 — the highest since 2022. The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil flows daily, faces active disruption risk. The IEA has classified this as potentially the worst energy shock since 1973. Japan, Australia, India and the Philippines have all declared energy emergencies or activated strategic reserve releases.

At current oil prices, every 10% rise adds approximately 0.3–0.5% directly to headline CPI in major importing economies. For energy-import dependent countries (Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Kenya, most of Southeast Asia), the impact is 2–3× higher.

Hormuz Closure Risk → Iran War & Oil Prices → Asia Energy Emergency →

How this index is calculated

The Energy Security Index is a composite of four signals, each normalised to a 0–100 scale and weighted by their historical correlation with CPI inflation:

Brent Crude — 45%

Primary energy input cost. Strongest single CPI predictor. Range: $55–$130.

Natural Gas — 25%

Electricity and heating cost proxy. Range: $2–$10/MMBtu.

Oil Volatility — 15%

Weekly price swing. High volatility = supply uncertainty = risk premium.

Gold/Oil Ratio — 15%

When oil is expensive relative to gold, energy security erodes.

Data: Yahoo Finance (BZ=F, NG=F, GC=F). Updated every 5 minutes via automated cron. Full methodology →

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