Inflation Pressure Index

Four inputs, one bill. Energy, food, freight and the dollar are the four world-market forces that reach household budgets. Each already has its own WTM index; this page adds them up with fixed weights (35 / 25 / 20 / 20) chosen by how fast each one reaches a shop shelf. Energy leads because petrol and power bills move within weeks; currency trails because import prices take a quarter to catch up.

What it is not. It is not an inflation rate. Official inflation is measured after people have paid. This reads the pressure before they do, from the same prices and headlines the engine already scores every 10 minutes. No new source, no model, and the weights only change with a versioned release.

Reading it. Same 0–100 scale and zones as every WTM index. A sustained rise here is the earliest warning that the next official print will be higher; a fall while headline inflation is still high means the pipeline is emptying.

Month-by-month timeline → · public API field derived.inflation_pressure · CC BY 4.0 · Informational only, not advice.

The number for your cost of living. The Inflation Pressure Index adds up the four global forces that reach household bills — energy, food, freight and the dollar — weighted by how fast each one hits you. Energy 35%, food 25%, shipping 20%, currency 20%.

Why a combined index? Nobody experiences “energy” or “freight” on its own. They experience a bill. This score is the one number to check before you assume the next grocery run will cost more.

How to use it. Direction matters more than level. Energy-led rises reach fuel and power bills within weeks; food and freight take a few months. The lag between this index and official inflation prints is exactly what our backtesting page tracks.

• Energy (35%) — oil and gas, the fastest route to your fuel and power bills.
• Food (25%) — wheat, corn and rice prices.
• Shipping (20%) — freight rates and route disruption.
• Currency (20%) — a strong dollar makes imports dearer for most of the world.

Today: 45 — Stable. Mild upward pressure on prices from energy, food and freight. Nothing sharp.

Direction: it rose 5 points over the last 7 days and rose 16 points over 30 days. Our record since 4 April averages 36.8, so today sits above its own normal.

The biggest contribution right now comes from energy security at 49.

The scale. Under 40 means world markets are not pushing prices up. 40–54 is normal drift. 55–67 means pressure is building. Above 67 means an inflation wave is coming.

September 2026 so far. Average 37.9 over 21 days. Peak 44 on 20 September, low 33 on 1 September. Read the September story →

Last month averaged 35.1, so this month is running higher by 2.8. Every month on record →

Is this the inflation rate?

No. Official inflation is measured after the fact from what people paid. This index reads the pressure before it reaches shops. Think of it as the weather forecast; the official rate is the rainfall record.

Which component moves first?

Energy, almost always. Petrol prices change within days of a crude move. Food takes months, freight lands in six to eight weeks, and currency effects trickle through import prices over a quarter.

Why are wages and rents not included?

Because they are local. This is a world-markets index: the pressure every country shares, before each country adds its own rents, taxes and wages on top.

How should I use it with official CPI?

Watch the direction here, then expect the official number to follow. When this index falls while CPI is still high, the pipeline is emptying and relief is on the way.