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Africa tension today

Updated 2026-09-21 06:00 UTC
72
High Tension
+2.5 vs its 30-day average of 69.5

What this means

One or more conflicts here are escalating and spilling into markets.

Covers the Sahel, Sudan, the Horn, the Great Lakes and the Gulf of Guinea. Key driver: Sahel Islamist Insurgency, Sudan Civil War.

Tracked conflicts in this region

from our own corpus
ConflictTrendHeadlines / 30dLast activity
Sahel Islamist Insurgency
Major War · since 2012		ACTIVE62026-09-18
Sudan Civil War
Major War · since 2023		ACTIVE42026-09-17
Somali Civil War
Major War · since 1991		ACTIVE22026-09-17
Nigerian Civil Conflicts
Minor War · since 1998		ACTIVE22026-09-17
Ethiopian Civil Conflict
Minor War · since 2018		ACTIVE12026-09-17
Cameroonian Conflicts
Minor War · since 2016		ACTIVE12026-09-17
Congolese Conflicts
Major War · since 1996		ACTIVE02026-09-17

Conflicts go dormant after 30 quiet days and retire after 120; candidates are surfaced for review on the conflicts page.

Month by month

MonthAverageLowHighZone
March 202686.68488Extreme
April 202684.47987Extreme
May 202683.37986Extreme
June 202680.07585Extreme
July 202679.27287Extreme
August 202670.06673High Tension
September 202670.36772High Tension

Last 60 days

DateScoreZoneChange
2026-07-2475High Tension
2026-07-2575High Tension0
2026-07-2676High Tension+1
2026-07-2775High Tension-1
2026-07-2874High Tension-1
2026-07-2975High Tension+1
2026-07-3074High Tension-1
2026-07-3172High Tension-2
2026-08-0172High Tension0
2026-08-0272High Tension0
2026-08-0372High Tension0
2026-08-0472High Tension0
2026-08-0572High Tension0
2026-08-0671High Tension-1
2026-08-0771High Tension0
2026-08-0870High Tension-1
2026-08-0971High Tension+1
2026-08-1072High Tension+1
2026-08-1172High Tension0
2026-08-1271High Tension-1
2026-08-1370High Tension-1
2026-08-1468High Tension-2
2026-08-1569High Tension+1
2026-08-1670High Tension+1
2026-08-1770High Tension0
2026-08-1873High Tension+3
2026-08-1972High Tension-1
2026-08-2072High Tension0
2026-08-2171High Tension-1
2026-08-2270High Tension-1
2026-08-2368High Tension-2
2026-08-2469High Tension+1
2026-08-2568High Tension-1
2026-08-2668High Tension0
2026-08-2767Moderate-1
2026-08-2867Moderate0
2026-08-2967Moderate0
2026-08-3066Moderate-1
2026-08-3167Moderate+1
2026-09-0167Moderate0
2026-09-0269High Tension+2
2026-09-0369High Tension0
2026-09-0469High Tension0
2026-09-0569High Tension0
2026-09-0669High Tension0
2026-09-0769High Tension0
2026-09-0870High Tension+1
2026-09-0970High Tension0
2026-09-1070High Tension0
2026-09-1171High Tension+1
2026-09-1271High Tension0
2026-09-1371High Tension0
2026-09-1472High Tension+1
2026-09-1572High Tension0
2026-09-1672High Tension0
2026-09-1772High Tension0
2026-09-1871High Tension-1
2026-09-1970High Tension-1
2026-09-2072High Tension+2
2026-09-2172High Tension0

How the regional score works

Built from the roster and the world score. Each region starts from its tracked conflicts (major wars weigh most, escalating ones add more) and is blended 55/45 with the World Tension score, so a quiet region still feels a global shock. Conflicts are recognised in our own news corpus; no third-party provider is involved.

Machine-readable: /api/v1/day/{date} (field regions.africa) · all regions · conflict roster · CC BY 4.0