Supply Chain Risk Index

Built around freight. Freight stress is 40% of this index because disruption shows up in shipping rates first. Energy adds 25% as the cost of moving anything, sanctions 20% because every new package pushes cargo onto longer routes, and armed conflict 15% — taken from the conflict factor of the World Tension score — because a closed strait undoes a calm freight market in a day.

Who reads it. Buyers, planners and anyone waiting on a container. It answers one question the underlying indexes cannot answer alone: is the system loosening or tightening this week?

Same rules as every WTM index. 0–100, the same five zones, the same daily record, rebuilt every 10 minutes from what the engine already measures. Weights are published above and only change with a versioned release.

Month-by-month timeline → · public API field derived.supply_chain_risk · CC BY 4.0 · Informational only, not advice.

The risk that goods stop moving. The Supply Chain Risk Index combines the four things that make deliveries late or expensive: freight stress (40%), energy costs (25%), sanctions that reroute trade (20%) and armed conflict that closes routes (15%).

Why it matters. Every empty shelf of the last five years started as a number like this rising. Freight is the core because it is where disruption shows first; conflict is the tail because a closed strait can undo a calm freight market in a day.

Who it is for. Buyers, planners and anyone waiting on a container. A rising score says add lead time and check alternatives; a falling score says the system is loosening.

• Freight stress (40%) — dry-bulk rates and chokepoint disruption.
• Energy (25%) — fuel is the biggest variable cost of moving anything.
• Sanctions (20%) — every new package forces cargo onto longer, costlier paths.
• Conflict (15%) — taken from the World Tension conflict factor; fighting near sea lanes counts most.

Today: 40 — Stable. Minor friction in freight, energy or sanctions. Plan normally.

Direction: it rose 1 points over the last 7 days and rose 11 points over 30 days. Our record since 4 April averages 48.2, so today sits below its own normal.

The biggest contribution right now comes from shipping at 44.

The scale. Under 40 means goods are moving normally. 40–54 is usual friction. 55–67 means delays and surcharges are likely. Above 67 means routes are breaking.

September 2026 so far. Average 36.3 over 21 days. Peak 41 on 20 September, low 29 on 1 September. Read the September story →

Last month averaged 41.8, so this month is running lower by 5.5. Every month on record →

How is this different from the Shipping Stress Index?

Shipping Stress is one input: the cost and disruption of sea freight. This index adds the energy, sanctions and conflict that decide whether that disruption spreads.

Why are sanctions inside a supply-chain number?

Because sanctions are logistics. A sanctioned tanker fleet, a banned port or a blocked payment rail all change where goods can go, long before prices react.

At what score should a buyer worry?

Sustained readings above 55 are where freight surcharges and longer quoted lead times tend to appear. Above 67, plan for missed delivery windows.

Does a high score mean shortages now?

It means shortages are more likely in six to twelve weeks. Cargo already at sea keeps arriving; the gap opens when the next orders ship.