Pre-registered predictions
0 of 3 scored claims correctAt the start of every month the engine writes down what it expects the next month to look like, in numbers, before it happens. Thirty days later it scores itself in public. Claims are timestamped and append-only: we cannot quietly delete the ones we got wrong.
Why bother. Anyone can look clever explaining yesterday. A prediction written before the month starts is the only kind that can be wrong, which is the only kind worth counting.
How claims are made. Each one is a range: the index’s own 30-day mean plus or minus one standard deviation. No hand-tuning, no cherry-picking which index to include. Machine-readable: predictions.json.
November 2026
written 2026-11-01 00:01 UTC · open| Index | Claim, written in advance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| World Tension | World Tension will average between 60 and 63 next month | — | OPEN |
| Energy Security | Energy Security will average between 50 and 58 next month | — | OPEN |
| Food Security | Food Security will average between 29 and 45 next month | — | OPEN |
| Shipping Stress | Shipping Stress will average between 37 and 44 next month | — | OPEN |
| Currency Stress | Currency Stress will average between 24 and 26 next month | — | OPEN |
| Gold & Silver Fear | Gold & Silver Fear will average between 50 and 56 next month | — | OPEN |
October 2026
written 2026-10-01 00:01 UTC · open| Index | Claim, written in advance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| World Tension | World Tension will average between 57 and 63 next month | — | OPEN |
| Energy Security | Energy Security will average between 40 and 54 next month | — | OPEN |
| Food Security | Food Security will average between 46 and 57 next month | — | OPEN |
| Shipping Stress | Shipping Stress will average between 33 and 44 next month | — | OPEN |
| Currency Stress | Currency Stress will average between 15 and 20 next month | — | OPEN |
| Gold & Silver Fear | Gold & Silver Fear will average between 54 and 58 next month | — | OPEN |
September 2026
written 2026-09-23 04:40 UTC · scored 2026-10-25 00:01| Index | Claim, written in advance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| World Tension | World Tension will average between 53 and 61 next month | 61.7 | MISS |
| Energy Security | Energy Security will average between 32 and 48 next month | 52.4 | MISS |
| Food Security | Food Security will average between 46 and 56 next month | — | OPEN |
| Shipping Stress | Shipping Stress will average between 30 and 41 next month | — | OPEN |
| Currency Stress | Currency Stress will average between 15 and 17 next month | — | OPEN |
| Gold & Silver Fear | Gold & Silver Fear will average between 55 and 59 next month | 53.2 | MISS |