May 2026 — World Tension 92.3

May was a tense month overall, with the risk index averaging a high 92.3 in the Extreme zone. Global friction dipped mid-month to its lowest point of 88 on May 11, following updates from the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. However, situation reports quickly worsened as drone strikes hit a UAE nuclear plant, missile attacks hit Kuwait, and both the US and Iran signaled they were prepared to resume war. Tensions peaked on May 6 at 96 after US warships came under fire in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting US self-defense strikes. By the end of the month, the situation found some relief as President Trump announced a pause on a naval escort operation, pointing to progress in negotiations toward a deal to end the war with Iran.

Scores in this month were computed by the first-generation engine (v1), which ran on a higher calibration than today's engine.

Peak 96 on 2026-05-06 · low 88 on 2026-05-11 · locked record · ← April · 2026 overview · June →

• U.S. launches "self-defense strikes" on Iran, says warships came under fire in Strait of Hormuz CBS News · 2026-05-08 · tension 79
• Drone strikes UAE nuclear plant as US and Iran signal they are prepared to resume war AP News · 2026-05-17 · tension 76
• Ukraine ally Britain eases new sanctions on Russian oil as fuel prices surge over Iran war AP News · 2026-05-20 · tension 70
• U.S. military strikes Iran as Trump says negotiations move forward for deal to end war NPR · 2026-05-25 · tension 70
• U.S. military accuses Iran of ceasefire violation after Kuwait comes under missile attack PBS · 2026-05-28 · tension 67
• UAE reports Iranian drone and missile attack after U.S. says it traded fire with Tehran PBS · 2026-05-08 · tension 67
• Experts Confirm the Fast16 Malware Was Sabotaging Nuclear Weapons Tests, Likely in Iran zetter-zeroday.com · 2026-05-16 · tension 67
• US military says it carried out ‘self-defense’ strikes in Iran, including on missile launch sites AP News · 2026-05-25 · tension 67
• Oil prices jump 6% as Iran sets UAE oil port ablaze, strikes vessels in Strait of Hormuz Reuters · 2026-05-04 · tension 62
• Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday after President Trump announced that the U.S. was pausing a military operation to escort commercial ships through the waterway because there had been “great progress” toward a deal with Iran. Follow live updates. facebook.com · 2026-05-06 · tension 58

• U.S. military strikes Iran as Trump says negotiations move forward for deal to end war NPR
• U.S. military accuses Iran of ceasefire violation after Kuwait comes under missile attack PBS
• Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday after President Trump announced that the U.S. was pausing a military operation to escort commercial ships through the waterway because there had been “great progress” toward a deal with Iran. Follow live updates. facebook.com
• Oil plunges, markets surge on report U.S. and Iran are near deal to end war as gas prices jump past $4.50 NBC News
• Iran war's fragile ceasefire tested in U.S. attempt to open the Strait of Hormuz PBS