July 2026 — World Tension 83.6

Global tensions pushed the risk index to an average score of 83.6 in July 2026, keeping it in the Extreme zone. Early in the month, conflict flared as the U.S. launched new airstrikes against Iran and its proxies, renewed attacks hit the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump threatened a naval blockade and bombings. The index peaked at 97 on July 14 amid these rising oil prices and military strikes. Tensions later began to calm as President Trump abandoned a proposed Strait of Hormuz fee and downplayed Iran's nuclear threat even as a ceasefire collapsed. The index steadily dropped down to a low of 63 to close out the month on July 31.

Scores in this month were computed by the first-generation engine (v1), which ran on a higher calibration than today's engine.

Peak 97 on 2026-07-14 · low 63 on 2026-07-31 · locked record · ← June · 2026 overview · August →

• U.S. thwarts Iranian missile attack on U.S. troops, strikes Iranian proxies in Iraq with Saudi forces CBS News · 2026-07-29 · tension 88
• U.S. military launches new airstrikes to punish Iran for deaths of U.S. troops PBS · 2026-07-18 · tension 79
• US-Iran war: Renewed attacks in Strait of Hormuz prompt another global energy alert UN News · 2026-07-08 · tension 73
• Iran War Updates: U.S. Launches New Strikes, as Tensions Escalate Over Strait of Hormuz The New York Times · 2026-07-17 · tension 73
• Oil prices jump more than 4% after Trump threatens to bomb Iran and reimpose naval blockade CNBC · 2026-07-07 · tension 68
• Oil prices rise as U.S. launches new Iran airstrikes, while Trump abandons Strait of Hormuz fee CNBC · 2026-07-13 · tension 67
• Oil little changed after U.S. reimposes naval blockade on Iran, launches more airstrikes CNBC · 2026-07-14 · tension 67
• US launches new strikes on Iran, revokes oil sales permit after 3 ships attacked in Strait of Hormuz AP News · 2026-07-07 · tension 67
• The U.S. strikes Iran after Trump announces a renewed blockade and tolls in Hormuz NPR · 2026-07-13 · tension 67
• Trump downplays Iran's nuclear threat as ceasefire collapses CNBC · 2026-07-08 · tension 67

• Trump downplays Iran's nuclear threat as ceasefire collapses CNBC
• Iran war: Trump says ceasefire 'over' after fresh strikes dw.com
• China’s SLBM Test Underscores the Importance of a Ballistic Missile Launch Notification Agreement CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies
• A misguided war, a flawed deal, and a dangerous future. Here’s what to do next on Iran. Atlantic Council
• Trump says ceasefire ‘over’ after U.S., Iran trade attacks but that talks can continue NBC News