August 2026 — World Tension 57.8

Global tension was in the moderate zone in August, averaging 57.8 for the month. Early on, concerns over artificial intelligence making nuclear threats more effective and reports on Iran's draft plan for the Strait of Hormuz pushed risk levels higher. Tension hit its peak of 65 on August 18 when Donald Trump threatened to bomb Oman as the Iran war remained stuck in a stalemate. Conditions calmed toward the end of the month when oil prices plunged as the United States announced a deal regarding Iran and Hormuz could come very soon. The index reached its lowest point of 49 on August 28.

Peak 65 on 2026-08-18 · low 49 on 2026-08-28 · locked record · ← July · 2026 overview · September →

• Can Trump's economic war against Iran do what airstrikes and negotiations couldn't? NPR · 2026-08-25 · tension 67
• Iran’s other nuclear weapons option — plutonium bombs The Hill · 2026-08-16 · tension 67
• Putting Armageddon on Autopilot: How Artificial Intelligence Could Make Nuclear Threats More Effective War on the Rocks · 2026-08-11 · tension 65
• The Drone Attack on Egypt and the Widening Middle East War carnegieendowment.org · 2026-08-03 · tension 64
• Trump weighing limited strikes against Iran to curb Hormuz attacks Axios · 2026-08-31 · tension 64
• Ukraine launches one of its largest aerial attacks of the war, killing at least 6 people in Russia PBS · 2026-08-16 · tension 63
• Trump threatens Pickaxe Mountain strike after reports of Iran missile launches iranintl.com · 2026-08-30 · tension 61
• Mapping Iran war’s strikes on Gulf energy and its impact on future of oil Al Jazeera · 2026-08-30 · tension 58
• Trump threatens to bomb Oman with Iran war stuck in stalemate as 60-day negotiation period ends CBS News · 2026-08-18 · tension 58
• Brent oil rises above $90 as Iran rules out interim deal extension, threatens to escalate conflict CNBC · 2026-08-17 · tension 55

• Brent oil rises above $90 as Iran rules out interim deal extension, threatens to escalate conflict CNBC
• Iran threatens new offensive while US rules out extending ceasefire deal Reuters
• US says Iran Hormuz deal could come 'today or tomorrow' as oil prices plunge france24.com
• Oil prices jump after US-Iran ceasefire expires and Trump threatens Oman The Guardian
• Iran, Oman deal on Strait of Hormuz getting close, Tehran says CBS News